William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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COMING THIS WEEK TO URGENT AGENDA - AUDIO COMMENTARIES. I HOPE YOU'LL LIKE THEM.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2008
BIDEN'S WORLD Posted at 8:47 P.M. ET Ed Lasky of American Thinker alerts us to a superb piece by Anne Bayefsky about the foreign policy views, or wrecks, of Joe Biden. You'll notice that there's been absolutely no vetting of Biden. That is because he has the highest qualification for public office of all - he regularly lunches with Washington journalists. What else could possibly match that? Bayefsky:
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Sufficiently concerned? Question: Why did it take a great reporter like Anne Bayefsky to pull all this together? Why haven't other reporters asked a single serious question of Barack Obama's "expert" in foreign policy, Joe Biden? The fact is that Biden has been wrong on virtually every major foreign-policy question of his generation. If the Bidens had their way, the Cold War would still be on, America would have a second-rate military, Saddam Hussein would still be on his throne, and John Kerry would be finishing his first term. But don't expect The New York Times to notice. September 27, 2008. Permalink UPDATE AT 7:35 P.M. ET: From the Deseret (Utah) News: If Congress manages to pass a bailout to stop a financial meltdown, Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, says Republican presidential nominee John McCain should get much of the credit. Bennett — who was in most of the key meetings Thursday before and after negotiations fell apart — said House Republicans essentially had bolted from all bargaining. But McCain convinced them to return and work seriously on Friday. COMMENT: I've noticed, in news reports today, that Republicans are starting to give John McCain some credit for his work on resolving this crisis. Senator Obama is doing nothing, which Senator Obama does so well.
COMMENT: Just thought you'd like to know.
...In a CBS News poll of people not committed to a candidate, 39 percent said Obama won the debate, 24 percent said McCain and 37 percent called it a tie. Twice as many said Obama understands their needs than said so about McCain. COMMENT: Unfortunately, that's pretty much the way I think public opinion will go on that debate. But let's wait for the later polls. We know this will be very tough, but a month is ten lifetimes in politics, and McCain can turn it around, with skill, and with much luck.
TRACKERS Posted at 1:44 p.m. ET The three trackers for Saturday have been published. (Battleground doesn't publish on weekends.) As reported below, Rasmussen has Obama up six. Gallup has him up five, a two-point gain from yesterday. Hotline has him up five as well, as loss of two from yesterday. All trackers were taken before the debate, but do reflect McCain's decision to suspend his campaign and return to Washington to work on the financial crisis. There's still more than a month to go before the election. Can McCain turn it around? Yes, he can. But something has to change for him to do so, and it's tough to figure out what that might be. The debate was at best a draw for him. The vice-presidential debate, this Thursday, will probably be difficult, as Sarah Palin has not shown herself adept at anything but set speeches. The next two presidential debates are on subjects on which Obama has the edge. Last night, Obama clearly aimed at making the nation feel comfortable with him, and succeeded. The only way to deal with that performance is to raise questions as to whether that was the real Obama. Deception is part of his game. Press bias, which we've said for months is a key to this campaign, is greater than ever. Any step McCain takes will be seen as "desperation" or "erratic." There is no shame left in the press. Their sixties dream is about to come true, and they will not be denied. The financial crisis will still dominate the news, a minus for McCain. His party, wrongly, is blamed for the whole thing. The Dems will milk it. Any bailout package will be resented by the American people, properly so, even if McCain gets credit for improving it. And still, no reporter asks about the strange timing of this financial crisis. So for McCain, the road back is very tough. If I were him, I'd go on a Truman-style whistlestop, with Sarah Palin, across the country. I'd also raise the gravest doubts about Obama, even if the press cries "smear." It will cry it no matter what he does. And, if I were McCain, I'd hope that the good sense of the American people prevails, and that voters start to wonder whether, in a time of crisis, they want to turn the United States of America over to a young man from Chicago street politics whose currently stated "views" seem entirely inconsistent with his unusual and troublesome political past. September 27, 2008. Permalink
Posted at 8:03 p.m. ET The punditocracy is going full blast, evaluating the debate performance of McCain and Obama. The only reaction I personally care about is that of the American voter, and we really won't know the full extent of that reaction for two or three days, as the tracking polls are taken. Some initial reaction, reflected in a focus group and a CBS poll, gave the debate to Obama. Debates are about impressions rather than substance, and on impressions I'm inclined to agree with this first response. At minimum, Obama was reassuring. He did not stumble through answers, as he frequently has. He had the play well memorized. Urgent Agenda reader Linda Gordon said it best: "Obama made me think of an A student who has crammed really well for the big test." He was thoroughly post-racial. If you listened on radio, you would not have known you were listening to an African-American. This was not Al Sharpton up there. And to white Americans (and probably many African-Americans as well), that was reassuring. Obama sounded as if he could be president. At the same time, reflecting on Linda Gordon's comment, he sounded as if he were telling us everything he knew. McCain, by contrast, lacked Obama's smoothness, his elegance. He doesn't have an easy facility for words. Yes, he was far more genuine, more substantive, wiser, more experienced, and at times a bit too combative. He is an intense man. Obama is, on the surface, a cool man. The late media analyst Marshall McLuhan taught us that television is a cool medium, and cool usually wins. As a citizen, I would trust McCain's instincts far more than Obama's. But voters are often given to more basic, even emotional reactions. And so I have my fears about how this debate turned out. It has been a bad time for John McCain. He was gaining nicely when the financial crisis hit, conveniently, as we've pointed out, in the midst of the campaign. His decision to return to Washington and work the problem was exactly right for a US senator, but, filtered through a biased press, was seen by some as impulsive and erratic. His own party, displaying the brilliant sense of unity and imagination that has marked the GOP recently, gave him almost no support. He is the leader of the party, but you'd never know it from the behavior of Republican members of Congress. There is precedent here. Just after John F. Kennedy was nominated in Los Angeles in 1960, there was a special session of Congress. I don't recall the exact purpose. But there was Kennedy, the new presidential candidate, strolling into the U.S. Senate - and his party almost completely ignored him. Maybe it's jealousy, maybe it's a reminder to a potential president to know his place. But McCain got the Kennedy treatment. So McCain, battered by a financial crisis that Americans blame on the Republican Party, has slipped in the polls. I can't imagine the debate doing anything to improve that situation, but moods can change. If an acceptable financial deal is reached between Congress and the Administration this weekend, and if McCain is seen as having improved it for the people, maybe he'll get some credit. McCain has another problem. The Sarah miracle has turned into the Sarah headache. Let's be frank about it: She's not performing very well. Yes, she's wonderful on the stump. I love her. I admire her. But her sit-down with Katie Couric was a disaster, and prompted conservative writer Kathleen Parker to editorialize that she should leave the ticket. I reject that - it would doom the campaign and advertise that McCain's first decision as a presidential candidate was wrong - but I understand the thinking. Increasingly, conservative writers have questioned Palin's abilities. My own sense is that she is very capable, with great instincts, but has trouble articulating those instincts when not given a prepared script. This Thursday Palin will debate Joe Biden. Some of our partisans have anticipated the debate with joy. Sarah will be great, they say. I'm not so sure. I don't look forward to it. She doesn't exhibit a "feel" for the material. But maybe she'll surprise us. All she has to do is hold her own, and she'll be fine. If she doesn't, and voters feel she can't handle the job, that fact alone could destroy the McCain campaign - not because vice-presidential choices have proven that important in the past, but because this one has drawn so much attention. September 27, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 6:35 A.M. ET: From ABC News: Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger came to the defense of longtime friend Sen. John McCain following Friday's presidential debate saying he "would not recommend the next President of the United States engage in talks with Iran at the Presidential level." "Senator McCain is right. I would not recommend the next President of the United States engage in talks with Iran at the Presidential level. My views on this issue are entirely compatible with the views of my friend Senator John McCain. We do not agree on everything, but we do agree that any negotiations with Iran must be geared to reality," Kissinger said in statement issued by the McCain campaign.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2008
11:48 P.M. ET: Reaction: If Barack Obama were an actor, I'd cast him as the nation's first black president. That's our problem. He's right out of central casting, and that can be key. A number of voters might well be swayed by that style. Of course, there wasn't much substance. Obama is great with prepared lines, and he makes them sound as if he just made them up. McCain is far more substantive, but often has difficulty articulating what he wants to say. On show biz, Obama wins. Let's see how the public reacts, and how discerning it is. 11:20 P.M. ET: Frank Luntz, on Fox, just reported reaction from a focus group composed of undecided voters. Overwhelmingly, they believed Obama had won. We await real public polls. 11:01 P.M. ET: Obama camp claims that McCain didn't get the game changer he needed. I would have to agree, but let's wait for the American people to weigh in through polling. Sometimes those of us who are "in the business" see things differently. Remember the lesson of the first debate, in 1960, between John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon: Those who watched on TV thought Kennedy won; those who listened on radio thought Nixon won. So reactions may surprise us. I think a snap poll should be out later tonight. 10:37 P.M. ET: Debate over. Draw. Obama's mission was to reassure the country on foreign policy, and he succeeded. Here is the problem: Obama has a history, and the Obama we saw tonight wasn't that history. So we are left again with one of the great questions of this campaign: Who is the real Barack Obama? Is it the man we saw tonight? Or is it the man who sat with Rev. Wright for 20 years? That is the mystery that wasn't solved. 10:32 P.M. ET: The debate is almost over. I'll call it a draw, but a draw is good for Obama. He was in command, he's smooth, and it's a shame, for John McCain is so much more knowledgeable than Obama, and doesn't have the baggage of Obama's confused record and strange associations. Style counts. 10:21 P.M. ET: Obama sounds presidential, and, although he glosses over his stunning history of changing positions every five minutes, his performance will put most Americans at ease. In this sense, he can come out well in this debate on foreign policy, which is McCain's great strength. 10:07 P.M. ET: They're discussing Iran. Again, both men are effective. There are no knockout blows here. 10:00 P.M. ET: There's some parrying on war plans, but the debate has begun to drift. No one is clearly winning. 9:50 P.M. ET: Discussing Afghanistan. McCain is fine on this, but Obama continues to hold his own. I get the sense that this debate will end in a draw. But we'll see. 9:43 P.M. ET: McCain just slammed Obama well, and Obama seems to be on the defensive. But he's slick - the snake oil just flows - and he remains at least reasonably effective. 9:40 P.M. ET: McCain continues to strengthen. He's on his game now, and the debate has shifted from the economy to pure foreign policy. McCain sounds strong. 9:30 P.M. ET: McCain continues to improve. He is best when he gets into detail, reviewing the specific things he's done, like leading the fight to kill a corrupt defense contract. Right now I'd rate the debate a draw. No one is dying here. 9:25 P.M. ET: McCain is coming alive. He's getting tough. Good, good. But Obama is very smooth. He doesn't know much, but sounds as if he does. 9:19 P.M. ET: The debate heats up. McCain is getting a bit sharper, and more effective. But Obama is on his game, and is holding his own. 9:17 P.M. ET: McCain did just score a hit by focusing on Obama's request for earmarks. He seems to be warming up. I certainly hope so. 9:11 P.M. ET: Obama and McCain have exchanged statements again. Obama seems confident, McCain hesitant, and again unfocused. So far, not good. 9:09 P.M. ET: Obama has spoken. He was fine. McCain is on now. Very frankly, McCain is rambling. He is unfocused. His opening statement was weak. 8:56 P.M. ET: Four minutes to go. We've just been told that a good chunk of the debate, at the beginning, will deal with the financial crisis. The debate is supposed to b e about foreign policy. I don't know who decided on the change, or if Senator McCain agreed to it. But it helps Obama. The debate will be held at Old Miss, the University of Mississippi, which has been trying for a generation to live down its racist past. The atmosphere will favor Obama.
UPDATE AT 6:10 P.M. ET: From AP and the Jerusalem post: The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran is one of several countries on the path to possessing the ingredients for making a nuclear weapon, according to a German newspaper report Friday. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said there was a list of countries that have both the fissile material and the technical means to assemble an atomic weapon within a few months, according to the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily. "Iran is also on this path," ElBaradei was quoted as saying. COMMENT: That's about as definitive a statement as we're likely to get from the wishy-washy ElBaradei. It reminds us of the stakes in this American election. We can elect McCain, who understands the threat this poses, or Obama, who belittled it until his advisers determined that wasn't a wise course politically.
So, in three of the four trackers out today, Obama has made dramatic gains. This is probably less a matter of being for Obama than rejecting McCain's tactics of the last four days, and blaming the GOP for the financial mess. The debate tonight looms larger by the minute. McCain must bury Obama, but I fear that, not having had practice time, he won't. If McCain's slippage continues, we can have a landslide for Obama on election day and a bulletproof takeover of Congress - the most left-wing president and the most left-wing Congress in our history. But there is still more than a month to go. Tonight, John McCain must summon all that is great about him, and show the American people the difference between a public servant and an opportunist.
McCain's situation is pretty awful. He hasn't had the chance to practice for the debate, and he looks erratic at the same time. The polls are slipping badly. He is in much worse shape than after the Democratic convention. A financial crisis, conveniently erupting in the midst of a presidential campaign, has thrown him completely off his game. Obama, whose career has gone from one act of nothingness to another, is lucky again. We'll be blogging through the debate. This is crucial for McCain. If he can't hit a home run against Obama - the subject tonight is foreign policy - we will probably have an agonizing October.
We'll have to wait until later in the day to see what Gallup and Hotline say. And remember that these things can turn around.
OUR GUARDIANS Posted at 8:03 a.m. ET We've discussed for months the vile nature of our journalism. Katie Couric, who made a specialty of insulting Cuban-Americans during the Elian Gonzalez case, now goes one better and directs her blurry eye toward today's object of liberal hate - Sarah Palin. American Spectator reports:
Of course not. That would remind viewers that she's the chief executive of our largest - by area - state. We must not confuse people with details like that. They're simple folk, and they need guidance.
There isn't even an attempt to hide the bias. In fact, I think this crowd is rather proud of it. They're "making a difference," although they seem not to have any idea what difference they're actually making. September 26, 2008. Permalink
WHO NEEDS IT? Posted at 7:16 a.m. ET Gerard Baker of The Times of London, often quoted here, has had many astute observations on the American campaign. Today he offers a unique view of what the next presidency might be like. After reading this, the candidates might drop out.
Why?
But our Barack, The One. He's not mortal. He can solve these things. Can't he?
That BUSH. If he hadn't won Florida, everything would be all right.
So they'll call Jimmy Carter. He knows.
He's saying that the candidate in 2012 might have a real chance at greatness. I suspect Hillary has already clipped this column and posted it over her bed. Dennis Kucinich probably has it framed. Oh, by the way, the Mayan calendar says the world will come to an end on December 21, 2012. So why bother winning that year if you're not going to make it to inauguration? I mean, if the world ends, where do you go to vote? They'll count you only in Chicago. September 26, 2008. Permalink
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